The recent announcement from Adobe that it will abandon its efforts to support Flash in mobile applications has produced a chorus of glee from the anti-Flash mob. I think that Flash (or something like it) will survive. It's important here to distinguish between Flash the application program and Flash the web browser plug-in.

Let’s take a look at Flash, the application program. This is the part that will survive.
The reason why Flash (or something like it) will survive is demonstrated by that picture above. That big white space on the bottom of the pic is Flash’s canvas. It’s a lot like Photoshop’s canvas. (Well, to be exact, it’s more like Illustrator’s because it’s vector rather than bitmap based.) The toolbar to the left of the canvas is also similar to the toolbar in Photoshop and Illustrator.
The primary use for Flash is cell based animation. You can see the timeline and its component cells near the top of the pic above.
I drew that circle on Flash’s canvas, just like you would draw a circle on Photoshop’s canvas. It’s easy. You see what you’ve done instantly. The circle is placed in precisely the position I want. Color and size are easily fixed.
By way of contrast, here’s how you would draw and place a circle on a webpage using javascript/HTML 5:
ctx.beginPath();
ctx.arc(100, 100, 50, 0, 2 * Math.PI, false);
ctx.fillStyle = "rgb(255, 0, 0)";
ctx.fill();
That's not even the whole story. There's some set-up work in javascript involved, too. The canvas itself has to be defined. But, that's too complicated and lengthy to get into here.
The same is true of jQuery or java, which are other scripting languages that might be used in place of Flash. Apple’s iOS is somewhere in between scripting languages and Flash.
So, Flash provides for much shorter development time in any graphic heavy application. When you program in Flash, you just place objects on the canvas. When you program in a scripting language, you describe in text (and numbers) how that object should look and where it should be placed. With Flash, you see results instantly. With a scripting language, you’ve got to compile and run before you see anything.
This is why Flash (in some form) will survive. I suspect that Adobe is already at work on a version of Flash that retains the graphical work environment and outputs to the new web standards. In other words, Flash in the future will output in javascript, jQuery, HTML 5 and CSS 3.
The Flash web browser plug-in will become obsolete and disappear, but Flash the application program will survive.
The ability to work in a graphic environment, and to see what you are doing as you develop cuts development time dramatically. Scripting languages also demand much greater skill on the part of the developer. Yet another reason why Flash will survive.
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